2019-2020 Winter Outlooks Released

For those who track the weather a bit more aggressively than your average skier, you'll be pleased to discover the 2019-2020 winter outlooks for most of North America are beginning to take shape. Our neighbours to the south have just released their official predictions, and the Accuweather outlook for Canada was also published this week. 

Long story short, it looks like a rough one for the eastern part of the continent, and perhaps mild for the west, although northwestern Canada and Alaska are predicted to receive above normal precip.

These forecasts come with a disclaimer, however: GCMs (Global Climate Models) are rarely accurate beyond two weeks out, so predictions are largely based on the possible positioning of the polar and subtropical jet, both of which are highly influential in driving the storm track. For example, despite popular superstition, the El Nino Southern Oscillation has roughly a 20% (at best) correlation with northern hemisphere winter precip and temperatures. Most of the effects of an El Nino come from the northward drifting of the polar jet, and the strengthening of the subtropical, and metrologist's ability to predict this phenomena far in advance is loose at best. 

For those who prefer a more hands on approach, one of your options is to keep an eye on the GFS. Here you can see the polar jet set up a few weeks in advance, as well as watch low pressure systems track over the Pacific.